Van’s Note: Van Bryan here, Jeff’s managing editor. We’ve recently been introducing readers to longtime friend and colleague Tom Dyson and the big investment idea he’s gone “all in” on.
Tom’s no stranger to bold ideas. In fact, he was one of the first analysts to recommend bitcoin back in 2011. That was before it proceeded to climb 302,000%. And now he’s got another premonition about a new idea he’s just as excited about… a radical investment that he thinks could make investors enough for early retirement.
I’ve known Tom for some years now. I can tell you from personal experience that Tom has a knack for nailing the “big calls.” And I’ve never seen him this fired up about an investment idea. I encourage all readers to pay close attention.
And I’d also encourage readers to attend his urgent presentation that’s premiering tomorrow, May 20, at 8 p.m. ET. Go here to sign up.
By Tom Dyson, Editor, Postcards From the Fringe
The place where you made your stand never mattered. Only that you were there… and still on your feet.
– Stephen King
I put my entire life savings into gold two years ago. Not because I thought gold was going to rise. But because I thought stocks would fall, priced in gold, by more than 80%. And I wanted to buy those 80%-off stocks, whenever that may be.
In late 2018, stocks suddenly got marked down 15% (priced in gold). And I thought, “This is happening now.” So I bet even more on stocks falling…
The last time I got this feeling was in 2011, when I found bitcoin. I was in some internet forum for geeks and someone mentioned it. I looked it up. And the moment I saw what it was, I knew. I just knew.
It cost $6 at the time. There was only one place to buy it – a website in Japan called Mt. Gox. And it was a brute to get a hold of…
I had to open an account with a PayPal-type service to transfer the money. Then, I had to jump through hoops like sending faxes, passport copies, and bank details. The whole thing seemed like a scam.
But I wired $5,000. That was a lot of money for a guy with three babies who was still trying to make it in the world.
Then, I wired another $5,000. And another. Then, bitcoin jumped even higher. And I thought, “This is happening.” So I wired another $10,000, which was enough.
I withdrew all my bitcoin – I had 3,330 of them – and transferred them to thumb drives via an internet airlock I set up using Linux, so they couldn’t be intercepted by online thieves.
Next, I made duplicates of the thumb drives in case they broke, got corrupted, or burned in a fire. I encrypted them. And then, I hid them in two secret locations.
Meanwhile, I’m a big mouth about this sort of thing. I told anyone who’d listen to buy bitcoin. I even started giving them away.
I gave one to anyone who came to my office, including Bill Bonner – I gave him a physical version of bitcoin called Casascius. And I gave them to my friends, Michael Checkan – cofounder of Asset Strategies International – and Swen Lorenz, an investment blogger.
I must have recommended it publicly, although I don’t remember doing so, because Chris Weber – who pens the Chris Weber Education blog – forwarded me a note from one of his readers:
I found this post from Tom Dyson on Facebook a few days ago… (I’m not FB “friends” with him, but I do read anything he posts as he pointed out bitcoin when it was like $15 or something crazy cheap…)
“With the Rupee near all-time lows against the dollar, India feels very cheap to us. We’ve been here a week already and we’ve only spent $180.
“Our hotel is $14 a night. Our meals are $3. Tuk Tuk rides are less than a dollar. A big bottle of water is 15 cents and a freshly squeezed juice or smoothie is 50 cents.
“Here we are in Jaisalmer, the city-inside-a-castle in the far northwest of India near the border with Pakistan…”
As an investor, THIS is what I love reading… and it instantly makes me want to drop everything I’m doing, travel to India, and see for myself! On one side of the world (USA), you’ve got a 9% default rate on subprime car loans. And on the other, you’ve apparently got a genuine bargain… so fascinating!
I also went shopping on the darknet, and I sent packages of cannabis lollipops and Rice Krispies Treats to friends all over the world, paid for with bitcoin.
You know what happened next. The price went crazy, and my investment turned into $1 million. And I thought, “That’s enough. I’m out.” So I sold all my bitcoin. After taxes, bitcoin volatility, and Mt. Gox’s insolvency, I ended up with about a $500,000 profit… and a lot of pot lollipops.
I should have held on. The bitcoin I had would be worth tens of millions today…
That brings me back to stocks falling in terms of gold. It’s a little different, but I got the same feeling about it as I had with bitcoin.
I put an irresponsibly large investment into it. I told my brothers and my parents to sell their index funds and buy gold. And I told pretty much anyone who would listen.
As I write, the Dow-to-Gold ratio is at 14.2. I’m expecting it to go down to 5 or lower. At that point, I’ll sell my gold and get back into the best dividend-paying stocks.
My stop loss for the trade is 22.36, where the Dow-to-Gold ratio makes a new 14-year high and invalidates the downtrend.
Editor, Postcards From the Fringe
P.S. If you want to find out more about my Dow-to-Gold ratio idea, be sure to sign up for the urgent presentation I’ve put together. I’ll be giving away one of my highest-conviction trades that you’ll be able to put to action right away. Go here now.
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