Will AI be a job destroyer?
Will lab-grown meat replace ribs, steak, and wings?
And how will life-saving early cancer detection by AIs impact the healthcare system?
Welcome to this mailbag edition of The Bleeding Edge.
Your fellow Brownstone Research readers have been sending in questions. And today, I’ll do my best to give answers.
Before we get to our first question, you can contact me anytime at [email protected]. I love hearing from subscribers. So, send me your thoughts, questions, and comments about the ideas and insights I share with you in these pages.
Now let’s dive in…
I’m a subscriber to The Near Future Report and Exponential Tech Investor. And I agree with you about the benefits automation will bring to us as investors.
However, I don’t agree with your opinion on the workers in Amazon warehouses. It looks like you’re ignoring the reality of the working class in this country. Those workers, I predict, probably don’t have enough schooling, and many of them are most likely foreigners.
Unless Amazon or the federal government has a program to school and train those people to attend the robots, most of them will be left without a job.
The same situation will apply to the automobile workers when robots displace them. It’s not to say I am against the use of AI, machine learning, etc. It’s just I haven’t heard of any training programs in existence for those people who make up the working class in this country. I would appreciate hearing your opinion on this issue.
– Victor B
Victor, thanks for being a subscriber and for sharing your thoughts. I love your question. It’s one I get a lot.
Please don’t think I’m writing from an ivory tower. I’ve cleaned toilets and picked up trash for a paycheck. And I know losing a job can be devastating, no matter how tough it may be.
But I believe artificial intelligence (AI) will be a net job creator, not a net job destroyer. I’ve also argued that the kinds of jobs this technology will replace are the kinds of jobs we should be replacing.
Take the job of Amazon warehouse workers, which will be one of the first jobs AI and automation will replace. As I showed you in these pages, Amazon is experimenting with replacing human warehouse workers with humanoid robots.
And yes, I see that as a good thing.
There has been an endless stream of complaints about working conditions in these warehouses. Workers spent their whole day lifting items off shelves and packaging them. The repetitive nature of the work can lead to back, knee, or shoulder problems.
More than two-thirds of Amazon warehouse workers surveyed by the University of Illinois reported that they took unpaid time off to recover from pain or exhaustion sustained on the job.
This suggests that injury and pain at Amazon are far more widespread than previously known.
And to add insult to injury, Amazon trains surveillance cameras on its warehouse workers at all times. As one worker reported, “It’s kind of demeaning to have someone watching over your shoulder at every second.”
Is that really the kind of thing we want to put people through for $16 an hour?
But the point you bring up is a good one. Many of these folks may not be qualified for less backbreaking work. So what will they do if AI-powered robots replace them?
To answer that question, let’s take the 30,000-foot view on what the AI revolution means.
I know not everyone sees it this way, but I view AI as a great equalizer. It democratizes knowledge in a way we’ve never seen before.
There was a time when you needed to go to university to get high-level education. But with ChatGPT and other AI tools widely available, that’s no longer the case.
Right now, it’s mostly tech-savvy folks using AI. For instance, the analysts on my team are constantly telling me about new ways they’re using these tools as part of their research process.
But soon, everyone will use AI apps. And a big area of growth will be AI-powered education. Those who want a personal AI tutor can have one. For the first time, a good education won’t just be for privileged folks who can afford it. Anyone with an internet connection and a smartphone – and that’s now 5 billion people and counting – can learn anything from their AI tutor.
We’re already seeing this happen. To write college-level essays, you used to need to attend college or spend years practicing. Now my son, who is in elementary school, can get AI to help him write essays way above his grade level.
I’m not saying there won’t be any job displacement as a result of AI. There will be. But it’s the privileged and educated that AI is going to disrupt the most, not the working class.
Take the legal profession. To get top legal advice today, you need to be wealthy or well-connected. Soon, you’ll just need an AI lawyer.
Or take coding. This is another white-collar job AI will disrupt. I spent years learning to code in several computer languages. It took countless hours of watching videos, reading forums, and trial and error. But coding is one of ChatGPT’s greatest skills right now. It’s unbelievable. Someone with no coding experience can create websites, apps, and even video games just using prompts.
AI will make it so a kid who dropped out of high school can code as well as a Stanford computer science graduate.
I know it sounds crazy. But already ChatGPT can write code in multiple programming languages, including Python, JavaScript, C++, and Java.
All you need to do is provide ChatGPT with a prompt, and it generates code for you.
It can also perform tasks such as code completion and error checking. This helps programmers up their coding efficiency.
Solving complex math equations, doing market research, and creating custom logos and branding. Before AI, these were the domains of folks with specialized degrees or skill sets. Now, you just tell the computer to do it.
We’ve never seen this before in history.
Robotics and automation will replace some jobs. But those displaced workers now have access to a computer system that gives them more knowledge than someone who just spent $250,000 on an Ivy League education.
I know this goes against the grain. But access to AI will make the American Dream more, not less, obtainable.
I’d love to hear your thoughts on this. Thanks again for writing in.
Getting rid of glyphosate [used in weedkillers] would be wonderful. But I can see the likes of Monsanto continuing their fight.
How big a threat to farmers are fake foods and beef grown from cell cultures?
Love the newsletters. Thank you.
– Suzanne B.
Thanks for the message, Suzanne.
You’re referring to Wednesday’s Bleeding Edge. We looked at how farmers are using AI-piloted drones to spot weeds below with 96% accuracy. Then instead of the farmer spraying his entire fields with herbicide, the drone uses a targeted spray to kill the weeds.
You’re right. Makers of weed killers that harm our health won’t do much to improve the safety of these products. But AI-powered drones will at least cut down on the use of these chemicals.
It’s just one of the many ways AI will improve our daily lives.
Regarding your question about lab-cultivated meat, most of the research I’ve read tells me that it won’t put much of a dent in the meat industry. It’s too hard to scale up the production of cultured meat.
Without getting into too much detail, large-scale production requires lots and lots of bioreactors. These are tank-like vessels capable of growing a significant number of animal cells. They’re expensive to run. And designing bioreactors that can economically scale is a challenge.
I’m also not sure that Americans are going to give up ribs, steaks, and wings for the lab-cultured alternative.
There will be a market for cultured meats, particularly in places where raising and feeding livestock is hard. But likely not enough to impact livestock farmers or the farmers who produce feed for livestock.
All I know for sure is this makes me want to sit down with my family and have a steak dinner. I hope this helped answer your question, and thanks again for writing in.
What effect does saving lives, through AI, have on the bottom lines of say United Health, Humana, or Mayo Clinic?
– CW
As I wrote about here, here, and here, AI is helping save lives by detecting types of cancer earlier and more accurately than human doctors can.
That’s great news. About 10 million people die of cancer every year. And about 20 million people get diagnosed with cancer. Already, AI-powered screening can shrink those numbers. AI systems of the future will shrink them dramatically.
It’s one of the things I don’t get about the debate over AI. Folks are always bringing up these sci-fi scenarios in which AI destroys humanity. But actually, the opposite is happening. AI is helping us live better, healthier lives.
But you raise an interesting question about the impact of this on healthcare and insurance companies.
Several industries have barely innovated over the decades. They’re just coasting off inertia and dominant market share. The health insurance industry is a perfect example. So, it remains to be seen if these companies adapt to the changing paradigm.
But if they embrace AI, hospitals and healthcare insurance companies will be able to do what other companies will be able to do – cut costs.
For instance, they can automate administrative tasks, such as scheduling appointments and processing claims. They can also use AI systems to detect fraud and abuse.
More accurate and earlier diagnosis of diseases means less costly treatments for patients. It also means fewer insurance claims over misdiagnoses.
We’re just in the early stages of AI-powered medicine. I’m very excited about how AI will transform healthcare over the coming years. It’s something my team and I are researching right now. So stay tuned for more in these pages…
Regards,
Colin Tedards
Editor, The Bleeding Edge