Originally described in 2013 by Elon Musk, the Hyperloop was a vision of the future…
The future of transportation.
Musk first called it a “fifth mode of transport,” and he described it as a “cross between a Concorde and a railgun and an air hockey table.”
That was back in 2012 – when Musk first mentioned it.
Musk and a group of engineers from both Tesla and SpaceX set out to design the Hyperloop system, including estimates for associated costs. It was meant to be a blueprint for the future of transportation. A clever fifth mode of transport.
The Hyperloop Alpha design evolved into a 58-page document that was released in 2013 as an open-source design. It’s full of details, even including schematics, on how to build a hyperloop system. For those curious, you can find the document on Tesla’s website here.
Hyperloop Alpha | Source: Tesla
The catalyst for Musk and his team’s invention was the absolute joke of the California state-led California High-Speed Rail project, which in 2013 was estimated to cost $68.4 billion. The project promised:
I remember clearly when the California project was announced. I was living in Tokyo, Japan at the time and could only shake my head.
The first bullet train between Tokyo and Osaka, a distance of 320 miles (515 kilometers), was commissioned in 1964.
Commissioning of the first bullet train, October 1, 1964
The Series 0 Shinkansen trains were capable of traveling at 131 mph. Again, that was back in 1964.
The state of California proposed technology that was on par with Japan circa the 1960s, and at an absurd cost.
Today, the Tokyo-Osaka route can be made in just 2 hours and 22 minutes in incredible comfort. And that includes the time for stops in Shinagawa, Yokohama, Nagoya, and Kyoto.
Better yet, the Shinkansen performance stats are beyond impressive:
I used to travel this route two or three times a month. I’ve enjoyed the Shinkansen hundreds of times. It is a remarkable way to travel, and consistently the most punctual and cost-effective.
That is why the state of California’s proposition made no sense at all. In fact, the state of California has flat-out ignored the Hyperloop design as a solution for high-speed rail in California.
Why design a transportation system on par with technology used decades ago? And at an absurd cost. It’s preposterous…
And yet, over a decade later, the plans for California have become far worse.
The latest estimates for the California High-Speed Rail Project are now much higher.
Source: California High-Speed Rail Authority
Today’s estimates are in a range between $89 billion and $128 billion to complete the project.
And the California High-Speed Rail Authority positions this as a bargain, because its estimated costs – to build out an equivalent amount of highway and/or air capacity – is much larger… in the $179–253 billion range.
This is why the whole project made absolutely no sense to Musk. It was a problem worth solving.
But Musk’s focus at the time was entirely on building SpaceX and Tesla, which is why the Hyperloop designs were open-sourced. He just didn’t have the bandwidth to take on a project like that.
The hope was that someone – some group or some government – would pick up the designs and work towards commercialization.
Like all of Musk’s designs, the Hyperloop is an elegant and cost-effective solution. And the engineering is straightforward.
The Hyperloop “tracks” are contained within low-pressure steel tubes, through which the passenger-carrying capsules shuttle through the tubes at very high speeds.
The capsules are accelerated using magnetic linear accelerators. These capsules can be designed for passengers only, as well as passengers plus cargo and even vehicles.
Hyperloop Capsule Concept | Source: Tesla
The system is designed to support speeds up to an incredible 760 mph (1,220 kph), just a bit less than the speed of sound – intentionally designed to be subsonic. It’s the low-pressure system that reduces aerodynamic resistance and enables such high speeds.
The result: Just a 35-minute trip from “county line to county line,” between Los Angeles and San Francisco.
If that’s not exciting enough, the economics are shocking.
The estimate for the entire system – including two one-way tubes and 40 passenger capsules – is less than $6 billion. That represents about 5.6% of the cost of what has been proposed by the California High-Speed Rail Authority based on its base case estimates.
And equally striking is how low the energy requirements are to run a Hyperloop system.
Just look at the graph below, showing the comparison of the “Passenger Hyperloop” to our current forms of land, air, and rail transportation.
A Hyperloop requires only about 9% of the energy required per passenger than that of a normal car, and even less compared to an airplane.
You’d think, for a state that proclaims to be so focused on the environment and energy conservation, they’d be all over this design. But no, the state’s bureaucrats and politicians hate Elon Musk that much.
I was reminded of the Hyperloop recently when reading about China’s latest developments in high-speed transport.
China’s high-speed trains currently operate between 120-240 mph (200-380 kph), and they look remarkably similar to Japan’s bullet train technology.
And China’s next generation of high-speed trains is looking a lot like the Hyperloop design, with near-vacuum tubes through which passenger capsules will travel using magnetic levitation. The design will also support subsonic speeds of 1,000 kph (621 mph).
The choice of the design is very telling.
Constructing near-vacuum tubes minimizes aerodynamic resistance, but dramatically increases costs.
It is far more difficult to maintain stable near-vacuum conditions compared to the low-pressure systems envisioned by the original Hyperloop design.
It tells us that China is not optimizing for cost. This isn’t surprising as China is known for its massive infrastructure spending and corruption. The larger the bill, the more that can be siphoned off.
Nor is China’s design optimized for reduced energy consumption. Energy requirements per passenger are much higher when needing to maintain a near-vacuum tube condition. Again, China has been quickly spending on energy production infrastructure, both nuclear and coal, as there is little to no concern about rising CO2 emissions in China.
But Musk and his team’s goals were different. Dramatically lower costs and far lower energy consumption per passenger compared to any other form of transport. Just as Musk reduced launch costs per kilogram to low-Earth orbit by more than 90% at SpaceX, his goal was to do the same with Hyperloop.
Assuming Hyperloop construction between Los Angeles and San Francisco amortized over 20 years, and including operational costs, the Hyperloop design estimated that the tickets would be $20 plus operating costs for each one-way ticket.
It’s almost hard to believe, and yet it’s not.
Once SpaceX commercializes its Starship, launch costs to low-Earth orbit (LEO) will drop by another 90% or more… to just $100 a kilogram.
Musk has been doing the same thing at Tesla, as the cost of Tesla electric vehicles has been on the decline. And the Cybercab is expected to be just $25,000. And once Cybercabs are providing fully autonomous rides, the costs per mile will drop below that of public transportation like buses.
The technology to build a Hyperloop exists. It’s open-sourced. And it is a fraction of the cost and energy of what exists today.
But where is the West in this road to the future of transportation?
China is racing ahead with the technology. And Japan remains focused on its bullet train infrastructure, which is extraordinary in every regard.
And Japan is already constructing a new magnetic levitation bullet train between Tokyo and Nagoya, originally scheduled for 2027 but now delayed until 2034.
And yet, Western Hyperloop projects have struggled to make progress. There have been many startups interested in commercializing the technology, many with “Hyperloop” or “Loop” in their names:
I’ll be the first to admit that I was spoiled living in Japan for so long. Riding a Shinkansen was as normal to me as taking a taxi in a city – a weekly mode of transport to cover long distances in short periods and avoid the hassle of airports or the congestion of surface-road transportation. What a luxury…
In the U.S., riding on Amtrak is a painful experience, after having experienced what rail transportation should be like.
It’s baffling, considering we’re days away from the year 2025 – a year that many science fiction writers of the past predicted comfortable high-speed transport, or even flying cars.
And yet, here we are…
It feels like an endeavor for Elon Musk. Perhaps a new company. I would feel guilty asking that of him, however. He has his hands full right now with Tesla, SpaceX, Neuralink, The Boring Company, xAI, and X, and he has already started work with Vivek Ramaswamy in his new post at DOGE in the Trump administration.
What an opportunity to redefine the future of transportation. And what an incredible grand infrastructure project to announce. Seattle to Los Angeles. Boston to Miami. Chicago to New York City. All on Hyperloop.
It may be a dream right now, but it should become a reality.
I only hope that we’re alive to see it.
Jeff
The Bleeding Edge is the only free newsletter that delivers daily insights and information from the high-tech world as well as topics and trends relevant to investments.
The Bleeding Edge is the only free newsletter that delivers daily insights and information from the high-tech world as well as topics and trends relevant to investments.
