Managing Editor’s Note: Today, Near Future Report senior analyst Nick Rokke shares his insight on the rise of general-purpose humanoid robots.
Manifested AI. The point at which artificial intelligence leaves our screens and manifests in the real world.
Nick dives into how this technology is nearly ready to start making its way into households everywhere… some of the most critical use cases we’ll see as mass adoption takes root… and the types of companies that stand to benefit most from the convergence of artificial intelligence and robotics.
You can go here to learn more from Jeff about the manifested AI opportunity. Then read on for more from Nick…
Two years.
That’s how long it will take before we see humanoid robots walking among us – on sidewalks, in warehouses, and eventually in our homes.
That’s not some sci-fi fantasy. It’s the latest projection from Sam Altman, CEO of OpenAI.
Altman is one of the most influential figures in artificial intelligence today. He’s helped usher in the modern AI revolution with tools like ChatGPT. And when he shares his timeline for what’s coming next, we pay attention.
Last week, Altman published a rare post titled “The Gentle Singularity.” In it, he lays out a provocative forecast:
That middle point – uncovering novel insights – is a rough definition of artificial general intelligence (AGI). And it aligns with what Jeff has been forecasting for years now: that AGI would arrive before the end of 2026.
Once that milestone is reached, the leap to functional, general-purpose humanoid robots will happen fast. That means investors don’t have to wait a decade to benefit. We’re entering the early stages of the robotic investment cycle right now.
Because robots don’t need to be programmed line-by-line anymore. They’ll learn through demonstration, reinforcement, and interaction with their environment, just like humans do.
That’s when everything changes. That’s when AI becomes real for people. We call this the “a-ha moment.” It’s when everyone will fully realize that AI is here and will change the world.
It won’t be abstract algorithms living in data centers. It will be Star Wars-like, C-3PO-style machines walking into our lives to load dishwashers, deliver packages, and help care for elderly parents.
To understand what’s coming, we have to remember that robotics is nothing new.
The first industrial robot, Unimate, was deployed on a General Motors assembly line back in 1961. It welded car parts in the Inland Fisher Guide Plant in New Jersey.
That was 64 years ago.
Source: automate.org
Since then, industrial robots have quietly transformed every major production line on Earth. If a product is mass-manufactured, there’s a robot involved somewhere in the process.
Now we’re entering the next phase: robots that look and move like us.
Earlier this month, Figure AI released a remarkable one-hour video showing its humanoid robot – Figure 02 – working autonomously inside a warehouse.
The robot was picking up packages, flattening them, and sending them down the line to be scanned. No human assistance. No remote control. Just a machine doing the job… autonomously.
You can watch the full hour of it here.
It’s mesmerizing. And it’s exactly the kind of work no human wants to do – mindless, repetitive, and physically draining.
Amazon is well aware of this.
The company has struggled for years to keep warehouse jobs staffed. Recruiting is hard, and turnover is high. So now it’s rolling out its own robotic systems. This includes a highly dexterous model named Vulcan, designed to handle goods inside Amazon’s signature fabric-covered totes.
Until recently, these bins could only be accessed by human hands.
Now robots can do it – gently and efficiently.
And Amazon isn’t stopping there. This month, the company announced plans to use humanoid robots for package delivery.
They’re not the only ones with this vision.
Tesla has its Optimus bot in active development. Agility Robotics is building Digit, a bipedal delivery and logistics assistant. Sanctuary AI, Apptronik, and 1X Technologies are all moving fast.
The first wave of humanoid adoption will come from corporations. That’s where the economic incentive is strongest.
According to Bain & Company, humanoid robots are on track to reach cost parity with human labor within five years.
By then, robots will be able to perform a wide range of physical tasks cheaper, safer, and more consistently than humans. That means we’ll see robots not just in factories, but across industries from manufacturing to food service, healthcare, and even construction.
But that’s just the beginning.
Within a decade, I believe more than half of all readers of this newsletter will own a humanoid robot. It won’t be long until we have an Optimus, or something like it, pliéing in our living rooms.
And the adoption won’t happen because it’s a novelty.
But because it’ll become a necessity – just like smartphones, microwaves, and dishwashers before it.
And the biggest adopters? It won’t be young tech enthusiasts.
It’ll be the baby boomer generation.
Why? Because robots will help with cooking, cleaning, lifting, and caregiving. They’ll be an essential part of aging in place – of preserving dignity and independence without relying on overburdened human labor.
But there’s another reason why this demographic will lead adoption.
We’re facing a silent epidemic of loneliness, especially among older adults.
More Americans live alone today than ever before. And the numbers are highest among people over 60.
What’s more troubling: data shows that people who live alone face a significantly higher mortality rate. The risk spikes even further for those who’ve recently lost a spouse or long-term partner. Suddenly, their most important relationship is gone, and isolation sets in.
That kind of loneliness is lethal.
And while no robot can replace a human connection, AI companions are already helping to fill the gap.
Today, people are already talking to ChatGPT, Gemini, or Grok not just to get answers, but for conversation, advice, and even therapy.
And specialized tools are taking this even further.
One company, Meela.ai, has built an AI companion that calls older adults on the phone and talks to them like a friend. The average call lasts more than 10 minutes. And it’s not just small talk. Meela checks if users are eating, taking their medications, or reaching out to loved ones.
A senior living facility in New York recently tested Meela with residents. After a few weeks, staff reported that participants were more social, more engaged, and more likely to join community events like bingo night.
This is a glimpse of what’s coming.
But companionship is only part of the picture.
The real driver of humanoid adoption will be caregiving.
Not long ago, I saw the failings of our current system firsthand.
My father-in-law began to lose fine motor control. We moved him into an assisted living facility that promised full support – transfers from bed to wheelchair, feeding assistance, the works.
But when he needed that help most, it wasn’t there.
Staff became reluctant to move him. And when his arms stopped working, they would place food next to him – knowing full well he couldn’t feed himself – and later report that he “wasn’t eating.”
Even Medicaid and insurance were no help. Despite what his plan promised, no additional assistance came.
It’s hard to say for sure, but I believe this lack of care hastened his demise.
Unfortunately, this experience is not unique. And it’s a big reason why families resist moving loved ones into care facilities even when they can’t manage on their own. They worry about what happens to their loved ones when they are not there, and they simply don’t trust the caregivers or the company behind them.
But here’s the critical question…
Would you rather trust your own well-being to an overworked nurse with ten other patients… or a robot that’s attentive 24/7, never distracted, and capable of safely delivering food, water, and medication on time, every time?
Let us know right here in a quick poll whether you’d like a human nurse, a humanoid, or any other thoughts.
As the technology improves, more people will answer yes to that question.
This will give millions of aging adults the chance to live out their final years on their own terms and in their homes, not as some source of profit for a corporation.
And here’s the best part…
While the initial price of Tesla’s Optimus is expected to be $25,000, the high-volume production target price may be as low as just $10,000.
That’s significantly cheaper than hiring full-time care. Even if a monthly subscription is required for updates, the math still works out in favor of the robot.
I plan to buy one as soon as it becomes practical, not because I need it, but because it’ll be a useful household helper.
But for older adults who struggle with daily tasks… this won’t be a luxury. It’ll be a lifeline.
Most of us already live with robots; we just don’t call them that.
Dishwashers. Washing machines. Roombas. They’re all purpose-built machines that automate physical labor – by definition, a robot. They may be limited to a specific use case, but they’re still robots.
The difference now is that general-purpose humanoids are about to enter the market. Machines that can perform a multitude of tasks… And even think of doing the things that slip our minds.
And when that happens, the market opportunity explodes.
Morgan Stanley recently released a deep dive on the robotics sector. According to their projections, the humanoid robot market will reach $4.7 trillion by 2050, with over 1 billion units deployed worldwide. That’s the equivalent of one humanoid robot for every eight people on Earth.
Source: Morgan Stanley Research estimates
Last year, Goldman Sachs revised its forecast for humanoid robot shipments in 2035. Their new estimate was 4x higher than the previous one based on rapid progress in AI, robotics hardware, and manufacturing costs.
That tells us something important…
Even the conservative voices on Wall Street are underestimating the speed of this transition.
Most analysts are trained to stay close to the consensus. They don’t get fired for being boring. They get fired for being wrong and loud about it.
So when major investment banks start aggressively revising timelines upward… we know the shift is real. And it’s coming faster than most expect.
Unfortunately, most of the companies leading the way are private – with the exception of Tesla and BYD.
Source: JPMorgan Chase; company reports; Bain Macro Trends Group analysis
Most of the pure-play robotics firms are still private. But that’s why we’re focused on the public companies that supply them – the pick and shovel dealers in the robotics gold rush.
In fact, the safest way to gain exposure is to invest in the companies enabling this transformation. Look for the software firms, semiconductor designers, sensor specialists, actuator manufacturers, and AI training platforms building the backbone of this industry.
It’s no secret that we are fans of NVIDIA (NVDA), Jeff was pounding the table for NVIDIA as far back as February 2016, and hasn’t stopped. They design AI chips and develop semiconductor programming software, enabling faster training and inference, and have a foundational model to accelerate the development of humanoid robots called GROOT.
There are already hundreds of other companies working on humanoid robots, too.
Here’s an infographic that shows many of the major players and the components they provide.
Note: Public companies only. Not all inclusive
Source: Morgan Stanley Research
(Click to Expand)
This is a great place to begin your own research.
Of course, we’re already tracking our favorite opportunities across our Near Future Report and Exponential Tech Investor research advisories. We’ve built positions in companies that stand to benefit directly from this AI-robotics convergence.
If you’d like to learn more and discover how to join us, watch Jeff’s latest presentation on robotics here, along with a special offer to get started.
This is a once-in-a-generation trend.
And it’s moving so much faster than almost anyone realizes.
Regards,
Nick Rokke
Senior Analyst, The Bleeding Edge
The Bleeding Edge is the only free newsletter that delivers daily insights and information from the high-tech world as well as topics and trends relevant to investments.
The Bleeding Edge is the only free newsletter that delivers daily insights and information from the high-tech world as well as topics and trends relevant to investments.
