Don’t be surprised when you see a face like this at your front door…
Tesla’s Optimus | Source: Tesla
Or like this…
Apptronik’s Apollo | Source: Apptronik
Or this…
Figure’s 02 | Source: Figure AI
Or, even this…
Agility’s Digit | Source: Agility Robotics
“They” may look a touch minimalist or even ominous, like Optimus or Figure’s 02… or a bit cartoon-like with Apptronik’s Apollo… or the industrial, non-anthropomorphic look of Agility’s Digit.
To some, they may initially come across as threatening or scary. For others, they may elicit surprise. For many, they’ll be a welcome and interesting sight.
One thing is for sure, they are coming to your doorstep…
And their intentions are good…
They just want to deliver your packages.
Amazon – which became the largest delivery business in the U.S. in 2023 when it overtook UPS – has been gearing up to “employ” humanoid robots in its delivery network.
Amazon has constructed a humanoid park in one of its San Francisco offices. The space is designed to test and train humanoid robots to perform the delivery tasks currently fulfilled by human Amazon delivery drivers.
It’s a physically tough job, averaging about 200 stops a day delivering 300–400 packages of various sizes and weights. Turnover is high, and labor shortages are always a problem for Amazon.
So, the adoption of humanoid robots makes so much sense. I would even argue it is urgent given the explosive growth in same-day or next-day deliveries enabled by Amazon’s Prime service.
In 2024, Amazon delivered more than 9 billion items on the same day or the next day, with no additional charge beyond its annual Prime subscription fee.
In order to meet the market demand and become even more dominant in e-commerce and deliveries, Amazon is clearly moving forward towards this inevitable, autonomous future.
The idea is simple. In addition to loading up packages in the back of a delivery vehicle, there will also be two, perhaps three humanoid robots along for the ride. A human driver will pull up in a neighborhood, and the robots will step out, packages in hand, ready to deliver to our doorsteps.
And yes, in time, the human driver will no longer be necessary as the delivery vehicles will become fully autonomous.
Amazon actually acquired the autonomous vehicle company Zoox for about $1.3 billion in 2020, something I wrote about in The Bleeding Edge – The Most Incredible Time…
Zoox has always been a unique player in the autonomous driving industry. Founded in 2014 and came out of stealth in 2016, it was designed from the beginning for full autonomy without any front or back – it can go either direction as needed – or any driving wheel or pedals […]
Amazon acquired Zoox for nearly $1.3 billion back in June but has largely allowed the Zoox division to remain autonomous and keep building its technology. Amazon has not spoken much over the years about its plans for Zoox, so the future isn’t very clear […]
[An] obvious application of Zoox vehicles by Amazon is to use the technology for last-mile delivery for Whole Foods, and potentially one-hour delivery of products ordered from Amazon where the buyer will be home to receive the package(s).
Whole Foods staff would simply load the groceries into the Zoox, and their work would be done. This is far more efficient than relying on gig workers to make the deliveries.
Zoox’s technology has been framed as an autonomous ride-hailing service to reduce congestion, but a Zoox vehicle is just as applicable as a delivery vehicle as it is for moving people.
Autonomous Zoox Vehicle | Source: Amazon
And the smaller-sized vehicles may be better suited for more urban environments. It would be easy for Amazon to produce a “delivery Zoox” – perhaps at a scale halfway between today’s Amazon delivery trucks and the Zoox autonomous people movers. Basically, enough space for a large number of packages and two humanoid robots while maintaining a size that is easy to park or idle in a busy area.
But the robots won’t be “dumb” robots with just delivery capabilities. They will be intelligent and have the agency to perform their work.
This is why it is not a coincidence that Amazon very recently launched an agentic AI team at the company’s Lab126 research and development facility in Sunnyvale, California. Amazon intends to give the humanoid robots the ability to solve problems and make decisions without any human intervention.
According to Amazon:
Instead of rigid, specialized robots, we’re creating systems that can hear, understand, and act on natural language commands, turning warehouse robots into flexible, multi-talented assistants.
This is what will make a radical difference in terms of utility and capability of the humanoid robots.
Just imagine if a robot struggles to find your house or apartment for the first time. It would have the agency to literally knock on a door or ask someone where a certain address is located.
Remember, these autonomous, agentic AI systems will have the agency to use logic and solve problems on their own. And they can communicate using natural language to interact with us humans.
And, of course, once one delivery robot finds an address, that becomes common knowledge of the entire network of robots. Getting lost will never happen again.
But it gets even better. As consumers become used to the presence of these intelligent humanoids showing up at their door several times a week, I predict that value-added services will be made available to the consumers who consent to their presence in their home.
Specifically, a humanoid robot might ask a consumer where they would like the packages delivered. Just think about the convenience of being able to tell an Optimus or an Apollo to set the package(s) down on the island in the kitchen. The robots would be permitted to enter the house, set down the packages, and let themselves out. This would be useful for all, but especially helpful for those advanced in age, or perhaps injured or unable.
I know it sounds crazy, but the technology to do this exists today and is being tested. It’s this wild integration of advanced robotic hardware, autonomous technology driven by neural networks, multi-modal large language models, and agentic AI.
But “who” will it be that Amazon adopts?
In terms of technology, Tesla is far ahead of the field in terms of technology. But Jeff Bezos competes with Elon Musk in rockets and spacecraft (Blue Origin / SpaceX), space-based broadband internet access (Project Kuiper / Starlink), and autonomous vehicles (Zoox / Robotaxi).
That feels like an unlikely partnership…
Apptronik’s Apollo or Figure’s 02 – or their next generations – would be the leading candidates based on where each company is today.
It’s also possible that Amazon would try to develop its own humanoid robot. It has the financial resources (almost $100 billion in cash) and a massive robotics division thanks to its 2012 acquisition of Kiva Systems, which is the core of its logistics and distribution robotics technology.
But then, what about Tesla (TSLA)? Could it become a competing delivery service?
Absolutely. And it could happen overnight.
Think about it… Pair a Robotaxi or a Cybercab with an Optimus robot, and we get a fully autonomous delivery system that could do precisely what Amazon does today. Nationwide. Pick your country.
Uber has Uber Eats, which was a $13.7 billion business and growing in 2024. Why couldn’t Tesla’s Robotaxi network do the same, except with humanoids?
As for the rest of the field, I’m afraid they are either woefully behind or sleeping at the wheel.
Walmart (WMT) appears to be doing nothing with humanoids. It has been experimenting with autonomous vehicles, but not Teslas, which means it hasn’t gotten far. Walmart’s focus with respect to robots has been in logistics and drone technology for deliveries of small packages to more rural areas.
UPS (UPS) was rumored to have been in talks with Figure AI this spring, but the point of the possible partnership was unclear. It was likely for logistics.
Figure AI recently shared some compelling video of its Figure 02 robots running its Helix “brain,” processing an endless number of small packages in a distribution environment.
Figure 02 at Work | Source: Figure AI
While UPS’s most urgent issues are probably centered around the logistics and distribution centers, I’m sure UPS is thinking about the last-mile delivery as well. After all, UPS has the same issues that Amazon does with labor retention and shortages.
At least UPS is doing something, unlike FedEx (FDX), which doesn’t appear to have any initiatives to develop humanoid-enabled last-mile delivery capabilities.
The legacy players like UPS, FedEx, and, for that matter, the U.S. Postal Service are at risk of massive disruption if they don’t aggressively pursue these technologies.
Amazon could become radically more efficient and launch delivery services to compete directly with UPS and FedEx in the U.S., severely undercutting their pricing for overnight delivery.
And Tesla, or someone who partners with Tesla, could enter the delivery market and surprise the entire industry with an entirely autonomous delivery network that no one was expecting.
But no matter how the future plays out…
We know who will be showing up on our doorsteps.
Jeff
The Bleeding Edge is the only free newsletter that delivers daily insights and information from the high-tech world as well as topics and trends relevant to investments.
The Bleeding Edge is the only free newsletter that delivers daily insights and information from the high-tech world as well as topics and trends relevant to investments.
