• Lithium shortages are fueling investments in recycled batteries…
  • A creator built his YouTube channel into a $1 billion business…
  • A huge data transmission breakthrough…

Dear Reader,

It’s been almost 22 years to the day since the International Space Station (ISS) was first occupied on November 2, 2000.

Having been continuously occupied since then, the ISS is a remarkable success story in international cooperation. The two largest contributors to the ISS have been NASA and Roscosmos (operated by Russia).

The Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency, the European Space Agency, and the Canadian Space Agency have also played meaningful roles in the project.

The amount of research that’s resulted from two decades’ worth of work in orbit is incredible. The ISS has always been seen as a steppingstone in preparation for much longer, and farther, missions to the Moon and to Mars.

The challenge, however, is that the ISS has become long in the tooth. The original modules and equipment are based on technology from the 90s, which feels almost ancient compared to the advancements of just the last 10 years.

The fact that the ISS is nearing the end of its life is well understood.

NASA originally had planned to decommission the ISS in the next few years. Roscosmos has been even blunter, saying: “An avalanche-like process of equipment failure is beginning; cracks are appearing.”

Unsurprisingly, given the current conflict with Russia, Russia has indicated that it will leave the ISS in 2024 and has already announced plans for its own modern space station – the first modules of which would launch as early as 2025, and no later than 2030.

But there’s something else going on that’s received almost no coverage by Western media outlets: China just completed the construction of its manned space station in the last 24 hours. 

The final module of China’s Tiangong space station, which I wrote about last year, was launched on Monday. And it’s now docked with the rest of the station in orbit.

Rendering of the Completed Tiangong Space Station

Source: CMSA

Tiangong has its core habitation module, supplemented by two additional modules optimized for research and experimentation both inside and outside of the space station. In short, China now has the most advanced space station in Earth’s orbit.

And that makes the U.S. government very uncomfortable.

Under pressure, NASA has adjusted its plans to extend the operating life of the ISS until 2030, which may very well be a dangerous gambit. But at the moment, that’s about NASA’s only choice.

Ironically, a private U.S.-based company, Axiom Space, is on track to commission the next space station. It’s being manufactured right now in preparation for commissioning in 2025… which is just right around the corner. 

Given the scope of the Axiom Station, it’s on track to become a successor of the ISS, which Axiom could “lease” out in part to NASA for research projects, among other things.

This is a remarkable period in history. China has a newfound manned presence in space. Russia is building its successor to Mir after many decades. And the U.S. has now become reliant upon two private companies – SpaceX and Axiom Space – to keep the dream alive.

NASA’s shortcomings aside, this is an incredibly exciting time. And behind the scenes, there’s a frantic race to establish a presence on the Moon.

Five decades since the space race involving the Apollo missions, the race is back on.

And it’s been the private capital, innovation, and out-of-the-box thinking of U.S.-based, next-generation aerospace companies that’s spurred this aerospace industry resurgence and the renewed support to further space exploration.

While it’s been a tough year, the rest of this decade will be out of this world.

The urgency of recycling Li-Ion EV batteries…

This year, we’ve tracked how critical lithium-ion battery recycling technology is in supporting the electric vehicle (EV) industry.

The challenge is that every time an EV battery is used, its charging capacity declines a bit. In the first few years, capacity drops by about 2% a year. After that, it gets worse.

This gives lithium-ion batteries for EVs a limited shelf life. That’s not something many talk about, and car dealers certainly won’t highlight this point.

Theoretically, these EV batteries can last for more than 10 years. But in reality, they need to be replaced after about seven or eight years. What happens is that the charging capacity declines so much that the range on a “full charge” becomes limiting for the use of the car.

So, the big question is: What do we do with these batteries when they’re no longer useful?

In the past, the answer has been to ship them to a dump. But that’s not a good solution considering the toxic chemicals involved. 

And given the massive shortages that already exist with lithium production – and other metals necessary for EV battery production – the world can’t afford to simply dispose of these batteries and their metals.

To meet current targets, projections show that the industry will need to produce 2.9 million tonnes of lithium a year. But only 2.7 tonnes of lithium were put into production over the last seven years. That’s cumulative.

And it gets worse.

By 2050, the industry would need to have 234 new lithium mines fully operational to meet production demand. Yet there are only 40 lithium mines in operation today.

And remember, lithium is relatively scarce.

The largest deposits are found in Australia, Chile, and China, with smaller deposits found in the U.S., Bolivia, and other markets. However, about 80% of lithium hydroxide comes from China, and some lithium-mining operations in Australia are owned by China.

Given the economic cold war that’s been started by the U.S., China-sourced products are no longer a reliable source in a supply chain… and many are banned or restricted from any domestic economic incentives tied to the Inflation Reduction Act.

Furthermore, given China’s own ambitions with EV production, it consumes most – if not all – of the lithium that it produces.

Western companies like Tesla are therefore focused on non-China-owned mining operations in Australia and Chile, as well as any production in the U.S. and other smaller, friendly markets.

The reality that the U.S. government – and many others in the industry – aren’t talking about is that there simply isn’t enough lithium production to meet the current EV production targets, and thus EV battery production.

In that way, those targets are completely artificial, as they ignore the availability – or lack thereof – of critical materials inputs.

This is why EV battery recycling is so critical. It won’t solve the entire problem, but it will help close the gap. The industry has to be able to harvest the lithium and other metals from the batteries after they’ve reached the end of their life.

Redwood Materials was the first major company to start working on this problem. Redwood was founded by the former chief technology officer of Tesla and has set up a major recycling facility in Nevada.

And now, there’s an East Coast counterpart to Redwood based out of Massachusetts: Ascend Elements. 

Ascend Elements recently revealed plans to build a $1 billion battery recycling plant in Kentucky. The company has been working furiously to raise enough capital to support this endeavor.

In September, Ascend raised $200 million in its Series C venture capital (VC) round. Then it secured another $100 million in debt financing.

And just a few weeks ago, the Department of Energy awarded Ascend with a $480 million grant. No doubt this is thanks to the Inflation Reduction Act, which is really just a massive tax, spend, and stimulus bill.

This level of appropriation of taxpayer dollars to hand out grants to private corporations makes me nervous. It immediately reminds me of the $535 million in “loans” that were given out to U.S.-based solar panel manufacturer Solyndra in the name of “clean energy.” Solyndra went bankrupt in 2011 at a complete loss to taxpayers.

Recycling EV batteries is critically important, but the business still has to make sense. It’s worth noting that Redwood Materials hasn’t received any U.S. government grants, that I’m aware of.

I’m cheering for Redwood, Ascend, and others to become successful for obvious reasons. And in the interests of “sustainability,” I’m also hoping they’re building their business models to be sustainable…

Otherwise, Ascend will end up just like Solyndra.

MrBeast demonstrates the power inherent in new media…

I’m sure many of us know that there are people out there who make their living producing independent videos and content for platforms like YouTube and TikTok. 

It’s easy to think that these aren’t “real jobs.” But we might be surprised at how large and legitimate some of these businesses have become.

The story of MrBeast serves as a perfect case study…

MrBeast is a popular YouTube star. His real name is Jimmy Donaldson. And he’s built a YouTube channel with 108 million subscribers. That makes it the fifth largest channel on the platform.

Source: YouTube

This is incredible. With 108 million subscribers, Donaldson’s YouTube channel is bigger than most traditional media companies.

And get this: His videos are simply stunts, challenges, and interesting travel videos. There’s nothing particularly spectacular about them. He’s just out there with his posse doing weird and silly things that are interesting to a wide audience.

As a result, his YouTube channel now grosses over $54 million a year for Donaldson’s business. That’s a remarkable business for a content creator.

Donaldson leveraged this success into creating both a food delivery business and a brick-and-mortar restaurant in New Jersey. It’s called MrBeast Burger.

And he’s not done. Donaldson now wants to expand his business even further. He wants to open new additional restaurants. And he envisions moving into consumer goods and merchandise as well.

To do this, he’s in discussions with VC investors to raise $150 million. The business valuation is said to be $1.5 billion.

Think about that… A business built around a YouTube channel valued at over $1 billion. Remarkable. This is the perfect example of just how powerful new, independent media channels can be.

As I mentioned, we tend to think of YouTubers and social media “influencers” as less legitimate than traditional media. But that’s not necessarily the case. Certainly not from a business perspective.

As common as content creation has become, the industry continues to grow and use technology to optimize growth and create larger audiences. And in time, it will leverage the brand into other unique businesses, turning the content and programming industry on its head.

The next generation of photonics…

We’ll wrap up today with a huge breakthrough in data transmission technology.

A team of researchers in Denmark just developed a unique approach to fiber optics. They demonstrated that a new optical chip and a single infrared laser can transmit data at an incredible 1.8 petabits per second (Pbit/s).

To put this into perspective, one petabit is equal to one million gigabits. For comparison, those lucky enough to have a fiber optic internet connection in their homes are probably experiencing around 1 gigabit per second. Now imagine 1.8 million times that throughput.

Better yet, 1.8 petabits per second amounts to twice the total global internet traffic traveling on light from a single laser through a single optical chip.

This kind of throughput is really astounding. And it could transform the global internet backbone. State-of-the-art internet transmission equipment would require more than 1,000 lasers.

What this means is that dramatically less equipment would be required to transmit the same amount of internet traffic. And less equipment means dramatically less power consumption, which proportionally reduces costs.

The key now is for the research team to take this from a laboratory design to something that works on a large scale.

I’m very curious to see if they spin out a company dedicated to commercializing this technology, or if they license the technology to an existing company developing photonics technology. 

We’ll certainly be watching.

Regards,

Jeff Brown
Editor, The Bleeding Edge