The World’s Largest IPO

Managing Editor’s Note: Over a recent two-week period, Jeff’s colleague Larry Benedict and his team closed trades with gains of…

+194% in 1 day 16 hours
+53% in 1 day 15 hours
+49% in 1 hour 39 minutes
+98% in 5 hours 27 minutes
+113% in 12 hours 4 minutes, and more!

In fact, Larry showed Jeff a list of 77 real money trades – including 63 winners – with gains as high as 519%, 567%, and 614% in as little as five hours… How is it possible? Join Jeff at Larry’s home for a private interview broadcast on Wednesday, June 17, at 8 p.m. ET to get all the details. Go here to automatically register and make sure you don’t miss a thing…

On the eve of what is set to become the largest initial public offering (IPO) in history, it’s a great time for us to put the SpaceX (SPCX) IPO into context so we understand the implications of this incredibly successful IPO.

To date, the largest global IPO in history was the December 2019 IPO of Saudi Arabian Oil Co. (Saudi Aramco), which raised $25.559 billion. After overallotments were accounted for, the final figure arrived at $29.4 billion. It was massive.

In the U.S., ironically, the largest IPO to date was for a China-based company, Alibaba (BABA), which in September of 2014 raised $21.767 billion. VISA (V) is in second place with its March 2008 IPO, which raised $17.864 billion.

And here is what the SpaceX IPO deal structure looks like, with shares priced at $135/share:

I find it odd that no one is referring to the greenshoe facility, which will raise another $11.25 billion of capital for SpaceX. A greenshoe facility is typically 15% of the primary shares on offer, kept available in the event that there is excess demand for an IPO. Most companies take advantage of the greenshoe option if greater demand is present, so they can raise more capital to accelerate growth.

That’s exactly what I expect to happen with SpaceX. As we’ve been exploring in The Bleeding Edge, SpaceX has extraordinary and ambitious plans not only for its business but for the human race. To name a few, it will:

• Ramp up manufacturing capacity of the Starship and Super Heavy booster to 1,000 units a year.
• Develop the Starship to the point of rapid reusability, enabling Super Heavy boosters and Starships to be turned around in a matter of hours. The goal is to have multiple launches a day and eventually one launch an hour… weather permitting.
• Manufacture 1 million AI1 data center satellites, launch, and commission the largest satellite constellation in history, and become the largest orbital web services (OWS) provider.
• Complete the Starlink satellite constellation of 42,000 satellites (Note: There are currently 10,413 Starlink satellites in orbit) in order to complete its vision for the orbital internet infrastructure.
• Build out its $115 billion Terafab, which will become the largest semiconductor manufacturing facility in the world, in order to produce enough semiconductors to support both SpaceX and Tesla’s semiconductor needs.
• Launch the world’s first artificial general intelligence, as well as the world’s first artificial superintelligence.
• Enable NASA’s Artemis missions to the moon, as well as establish its own lunar outpost with the goal of manufacturing solar panels and radiators on the lunar surface. It will also assemble AI satellites on the moon and launch them into space on a mass driver.
• Establish a self-sustaining colony on Mars capable of supporting 1 million human settlers in order to make the human race a multi-planetary species.

There’s more, but that is certainly enough to get anyone’s head spinning…

But here’s the craziest part. All of the technology already exists for SpaceX to execute on its vision. No other company in the world has demonstrated the manufacturing prowess and launch consistency that SpaceX has already proven.

It is all happening within the next 20 years – in fact, most of it will happen within the next 10 years.

No company has ever had such a grand vision, and no company has ever had the proven credibility to execute on such a vision.

It’s for that reason that the SpaceX IPO is already 4X oversubscribed. Technically, that means that there is so much demand for SpaceX shares that it could sell $300 billion of stock if it wanted to.

That’s not exactly accurate, however. There is a game that is always played during popular IPOs. Both institutional and retail investors expect that they won’t receive their requested number of shares in hot IPOs. So they ask for a larger number of shares, expecting that they will receive fewer. That means the $300 billion number is inflated a bit. The real number, whatever it is, is almost certainly well above $200 billion.

As it looks right now, there is more than $70 billion worth of orders from retail investors, who are expected to receive more than 20% of the overall allocation of SpaceX shares. Said another way, retail investors will only get a fraction of the allocations that they have asked for.

With the incredible institutional demand for the SpaceX IPO, it is a near certainty that the greenshoe facility will be exercised, resulting in a capital raise of $86,249,999,880 before fees paid to investment banks.

For perspective, the SpaceX IPO will be almost 3X larger than the Saudi Aramco IPO and almost 4X larger than the Alibaba IPO.

That’s how big the SpaceX IPO is…

How appropriate it is that SpaceX launches rockets into space…

Adding Kerosene to the Fire

The SpaceX IPO is coming on the heels of the Cerebras (CBRS) IPO, which happened almost exactly a month ago on May 13. From my perspective, it’s what got the IPO “fire” started this year.

Cerebras is one of the hottest AI semiconductor companies that I have written about a lot in The Bleeding Edge over the years. Its IPO was oversubscribed by somewhere between 20X and 25X. The demand was incredible, but the size of the IPO was on a very different scale compared to SpaceX.

Cerebras raised $5.55 billion from its primary share offering, exercised its greenshoe facility, and ended up raising a total of $6.38 billion.

One-Month Chart of Cerebras (CBRS)

The one-month chart of Cerebras might appear to be in a downtrend, but that’s only because the stock opened up trading at $385, despite having been priced at $185. That means the stock has held up quite well since the original IPO offering. It is trading about 24% above where it priced.

There is so much demand for new issuances in the tech sector. I would argue that there is at least $1 trillion of dry powder ready to step up and access new tech names hitting the public market.

Cerebras and now SpaceX are clear indications that both institutional investors and retail investors want more growth IPOs… now.

These two IPOs are sending a clear message to large high-growth tech companies… The doors have opened to go public.

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• +194% in 1 day 16 hours
• +53% in 1 day 15 hours
• +49% in 1 hour 39 minutes
• +98% in 5 hours 27 minutes
• +113% in 12 hours 4 minutes, and more!

In fact, Larry showed Jeff Brown a list of 77 real money trades – including 63 winners – with gains as high as 519%, 567%, and 614% in as little as five hours! How is it possible? All thanks to a simple, low-risk strategy Larry discovered back when he was running money on Wall Street... and an entirely new market he calls “The Last Unrigged Market in America.” Click to Register Your Details and Reserve Your Access to Make Sure You Don’t Miss a Thing.

LAST CHANCE: Do NOT Buy Shares of SpaceX Before Seeing This

The New York Times called the upcoming SpaceX IPO “a generational moneymaking event.” But please DO NOT BUY before you click here and see Jeff's new Elon Musk update. Jeff hopes you see this before the IPO because after tomorrow, June 12, it could be too late.

Shattering IPO Records

There are so many tech companies lined up to go public. Too many to list. As I wrote earlier this week, both OpenAI and Anthropic have already filed confidentially to go public this year.

Some other notable tech companies to look out for this year are:

• Chia – blockchain/fintech, has already confidentially filed
• Discord – social/chat/messaging, confidentially filed
• Kraken – digital asset exchange, confidentially filed
• Oura – digital healthcare, confidentially filed
• Anduril – defense tech, rumored
• ConsenSys – fintech/blockchain, rumored
• Lambda – AI cloud services, rumored
• Perplexity – AI, rumored
• Stripe – fintech, rumored
• Canva – design software, rumored
• Databricks – AI software tooling, rumored

And there are so many other possibilities to speculate on.

It is unlikely that 2026 will break the 2021 record in terms of the number of IPOs filed (not including SPACs) in 2026. Yet there is absolutely the potential for 2026 to outperform in terms of proceeds raised.

Source: Renaissance Capital

As shown below, 2021 brought in a record amount of $142.4 billion from U.S. IPOs. Assuming ~$86.3 billion raised, SpaceX’s IPO alone will be a bit more than 55% of the total amount raised in 2021… from a single IPO.

Source: Renaissance Capital

However, as of today, $35.9 billion has already been raised in IPOs in the U.S. That number, combined with SpaceX’s soon-to-be-raised $86.3 billion, puts us at $122.2 billion raised so far this year.

And with OpenAI and Anthropic’s pending IPOs alone, the 2021 record will be shattered by what follows SpaceX.

My prediction puts 2026 proceeds for U.S. IPOs in the range of $200 billion to $225 billion – numbers that no one else has forecast.

I also predict that the optimism and enthusiasm for U.S. IPOs will continue into 2027. The backlog is simply too large for all the exciting names lined up to go public to get it done within 2026.

We are in for an incredible run.

Jeff