SpaceX and the IPO ‘Hangover’

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Is SpaceX Already Overvalued?

By Larry Benedict, Founder, The Opportunistic Trader

SpaceX (SPCX) held the world’s largest IPO last week…

With an initial valuation of $1.75 trillion, the stock now trades with a market capitalization of approximately $2.8 trillion as I write.

But here’s the part most investors don’t want to hear: The easy money has already been made.

Investors privileged enough to invest during the company’s private fundraising rounds are sitting on a windfall.

SpaceX was worth $12 billion in 2015. By 2021, that figure jumped to $100 billion. And in 2024, SpaceX was valued at $350 billion. At the current market cap, the company has grown eight-fold from those 2024 levels.

Stocks that are priced high can certainly trade higher. But for all the excitement that blockbuster IPOs create, many newly public companies suffer a hangover.

One study looked at 30 recent major IPOs including companies like Meta Platforms (META), Robinhood Markets (HOOD), and Palantir (PLTR). The performance of those IPOs a year later was a mixed bag, with only 43% delivering a positive return.

The maximum drawdown during the first year of being public really stands out. Each IPO saw an average maximum drawdown of 55% during the first year of trading.

So even if you are eager to own SpaceX shares, you may want to wait for a pullback in the stock… just like we’ve seen with these other blockbuster IPOs. Alternatively, you could plan to buy shares in tranches, where you allocate a little bit at a time on pullbacks.

My advice is to wait out this immediate aftermath of the SpaceX IPO. The last thing you want is to buy in at the peak only to suffer painful losses.

Part of trading (and investing) successfully is looking for opportunities few see… not piling in with the masses. And for that reason, SpaceX’s stock doesn’t interest me right now.

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The Bitcoin Buy Signals Keep Adding Up…

By Ben Lilly, Senior Crypto Analyst, Brownstone Research

There’s a mathematical model that analysts follow when it comes to Bitcoin…

It historically has been used to time the bottoms in 2011, 2013, 2015, 2019, and 2022.

And as you’ll see in just a moment, we’re seeing that same signal now.

The last three times Bitcoin hit this model’s support level, as it did earlier this month, the average return was nearly 110% in less than three months’ time.

The model is what’s known as the Bitcoin Power Law.

It’s based upon math that runs in complex systems throughout nature…

It’s been used to model the pace of growing cities, understand how river networks spread, and it even helps pin down the timing and size of earthquakes. Power Laws describe a range of natural phenomena… Bitcoin included.

When it comes to Bitcoin, Power Law suggests that, as the network matures over time, the price of each coin grows at a certain rate.

And when we plot the function on a log-scale, we get a straight line. Which is what you’ll see in just a moment…

The chart below plots Bitcoin’s power law as three lines. These three lines are:

• Resistance (purple line, currently at $585,393), which, according to this framework, tells us the maximum price Bitcoin should be at any given time.

• Support (red line, currently $59,109), which tells us the lowest possible price Bitcoin should trade at.

• Fair Price (green line, currently $166,591), which is a linear regression that shows us the “fair” median on par with its historic price trajectory.

Source: Bitbo.io

These values rise with the passage of time.

Now, critics would say that the Bitcoin Power Law isn’t based on any fundamental thesis. It’s simply an empirical observation.

And that’s true.

But what makes it so remarkable is that price has remained in the range of these levels for over 15 years.

It also tells us we are witnessing a buying opportunity of historic proportion with price down more than 60% from what the model claims is fair value.

Source: Bitbo.io

We are right near the red support line. Historically, this is when you want to be a buyer.

A rapid spike back towards the fair value level at $166,000+ may seem inconceivable now. But new, all-time highs also seemed inconceivable during past Bitcoin cycles.

During the dark days of late 2022 and early 2023, Bitcoin traded for under $17,000. Sentiment was terrible. But that also marked the period when the asset touched the red support line. Bitcoin was worth more than $100,000 two years later.

Today, sentiment is once again terrible.

CoinMarketCap’s Fear & Greed index dropped to a reading of 15 last week. This suggests traders and investors are overwhelmingly bearish.

ETF flows are backing up this negative sentiment, with over $4.7 billion in outflows from Bitcoin ETFs over the past month alone.

All of this is bad news for asset prices. But the biggest returns have repeatedly come from buying the capitulation of others.

We don’t need to treat this power law as gospel. Instead, we can simply use it to give us more support for our original bull thesis, which we shared last week.

In fact, it’s one of many indicators now singing the same tune… Bitcoin and digital assets are hitting the point of maximum pain.

And history tells us it’s a chance to turn market pain into long-term wealth.

A Quiet Breakthrough That Could Change Medicine Forever…

By Feruz Kurbanov, Senior Analyst, Brownstone Research

In April 2026, the FDA approved a treatment called Otarmeni.

Most people never heard about it.

But it’s one of the most important medical stories of the year.

Otarmeni is a one-time gene therapy designed for people born with severe hearing loss due to a faulty gene called OTOF. This gene normally helps produce a protein that sends sound signals from the ear to the brain. When it doesn’t work, a person can be born completely deaf.

Otarmeni fixes that problem at its root — not by working around it with a hearing aid or implant, but by correcting the underlying genetic defect itself.

The results in children were remarkable. Kids who had never been able to hear speech went on to hear full conversations. In some cases, they could hear whispers after a single treatment.

The treatment itself could be a life-changer for many patients.

But for investors, there’s another important detail…

This was the first time the FDA had ever approved a “dual-vector” gene therapy. This is a new way of delivering larger pieces of genetic information into the body’s cells.

Many genetic diseases involve genes too big to deliver with older methods, so this technology opens the door for treating a much wider range of conditions — including diseases affecting muscles, eyes, the brain, and metabolism.

It also shows that the FDA is willing to move fast when a treatment is truly groundbreaking.

Otarmeni was approved in just 61 days after the application was submitted.

Normally, this process takes 10 to 12 months. I worked in the biotechnology and life sciences industry for years. So, believe me when I say that a 61-day approval is unheard of.

That speed sends a clear message to drug developers: If your therapy works and patients need it, regulators are ready to act.

This approval connects to a bigger shift happening in medicine.

Otarmeni can only be given to patients who have a confirmed genetic mutation, which means genetic testing becomes a necessary step before treatment.

That strengthens the case for companies working in genetic diagnostics and newborn screening. That means routinely testing babies at birth to catch these conditions before any damage is done.

There’s also an interesting business angle….

Despite gene therapies often costing millions of dollars, Regeneron announced it plans to offer Otarmeni for free in the United States.

That decision will likely spark larger conversations about pricing and access as these treatments become more common.

Years from now, the FDA approval of Otarmeni may be remembered as the moment medicine truly entered the age of genetic cures.

It proves that gene therapy is no longer just a theory — it’s real, and it works.

The era of single-treatment, curative medicine is no longer on the horizon.

It’s already here.